Today's experts are not debating what our future will look like when Artificial Intelligence reaches uniqueness and becomes superior to us mere humans. On the one hand, we have the majority, who believe that our world will become a much better place and that advances will only benefit everyone. But on the other, we have some who think that what awaits us will be nothing, not good - remembering that among the pessimists are bigwigs like astrophysicist Stephen Hawking and businessman Elon Musk.

For researchers at Oxford University, Yale, and the Future of Life Institute - an organization focused on the study of AI-related risks - conducted a survey involving the participation of 352 of the world's most respected artificial intelligence experts. The result of the analysis revealed some very interesting insights into what these people think about our existence in a machine-dominated world.

Insights

For example, the survey found that experts believe a 10% chance that machines with human-level intelligence will have been developed by the year 2028. The probability jumps to 50% by the year 2050 - and to 90% by 2150.

The bet is that eventually the machines will perform the activities performed by humans.

In addition, data analysis revealed that experts believe that there is a 50% chance that by the year 2061 machines will be able to perform any activity that is performed today by human workers - and at a higher cost. low. Regarding the impact these smart devices will have on humanity, the survey pointed out that there is a 20% probability that it will be extremely positive and a 25% probability that the impact will only be good.

Still on the impact of machines on mankind, experts believe in a 20% probability that it will be neutral, that is, neither good nor bad, but the answers also pointed out that there is a 10% chance that it will be negative - and 5% of participants think the impact will be extremely unfavorable and could result in the extinction of our species.

Not everyone is optimistic

Taking into account the fact that machines (rebel against us in the "Terminator" style) and put our existence at risk, 48% of experts support the idea that society must find ways to minimize danger - and 12% of them think this topic should be a priority among researchers involved in AI development.

Unfortunately, the survey did not go into detail about how experts think machines could turn against us in the future. Stephen Hawking, for example, has expressed on more than one occasion his deep concern about our ability to control artificial intelligence once the “robots” reach the point of evolution on their own, and also the race to develop weaponry based on that intelligence. technology. But, hey, 20% of survey participants believe that it will be extremely good, so there is hope!

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