Could a deadly pandemic occur through human carelessness?
An alarming article, published by the journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, suggests that a catastrophic pandemic could occur in the world at any moment, causing the deaths of millions - and all by mere human carelessness.
According to the text, such an outbreak could occur if any virus manipulated in specialized laboratories accidentally escaped and came into contact with the population. And one virus that potentially poses this risk is SARS - or severe acute respiratory syndrome - which has a mortality rate of 9.6%.
Potential hazard
To give you an idea of the magnitude of the danger, smallpox virus, for example, can only be found alive in two laboratories around the world - one in Russia and one in the US - and is kept under the highest levels of safety. possible. Thus, the probability of an accident occurring with this microorganism is very small.
In fact, the probability that a virus kept under the same conditions - and number - as that of smallpox escapes is 0.3%. That is, mathematically this means that it would take 536 years for an 80% chance that at least one of these organisms would escape.
On the other hand, there are currently 42 laboratories conducting studies with the SARS virus, 30 of which work exclusively with this microorganism. In this case, the probability of an accident occurring rises significantly, jumping to a probability of 80% contagion every 12.8 years.
And what could happen?
SARS was first registered in 2002 when an infected woman traveled from Hong Kong to Toronto. This single person transmitted the disease to 438 other individuals in Canada, 44 of whom died.
However, keep in mind that Canada has excellent infrastructure to handle public health situations. So imagine what could have happened if this infected woman had landed in some poor country, in a war zone or even here in Brazil!
According to the article's estimates, 15% of the world's population could be infected, or approximately 1 billion people, of which 100 million could die from the disease.
Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
